Former President Donald Trump is set to return to the site where he nearly lost his life in July, holding a rally Saturday that his campaign and allies have hyped up as one of the biggest opportunities to boost his candidacy in the final weeks of the presidential race.

Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania — where he was shot in the ear by a would-be assassin, who killed a rallygoer and injured others — will give him a spotlight for one of his rallies that has been more difficult for him to grab in recent years. 

Its importance is further heightened given its relevance in arguably the most pivotal swing state this fall — one both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are going all-out to win.

“It’s a huge opportunity. It’ll be more covered than his typical rally these days,” a Trump ally who has worked in Pennsylvania predicted. 

Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, will also join him for the rally, which is sure to feature a remembrance of Corey Comperatore, the former fire chief who died in the shooting, and honor two other people who were injured when Thomas Crooks, the 20-year-old gunman from a Pittsburgh-area suburb, opened fire from a nearby rooftop. He was shot and killed by law enforcement moments after.

Karoline Leavitt, a campaign spokesperson, said the former president “looks forward to returning to Butler, Pennsylvania to honor the victims from that tragic day.”

“The willingness of Pennsylvanians to join President Trump in his return to Butler represents the strength and resiliency of the American people,” she said.

But the Trump ally worried he would not be able to meet the moment. In recent weeks, Trump’s rhetoric at rallies has turned darker, including calling for police to be “real rough” on suspected criminals for “one rough hour” and suggesting that Harris was “mentally impaired.”

“It’s just an opportunity for him to kind of do a little bit more than the average rally,” this person said. “I don’t have a ton of faith that it’ll be any different, though. That’s the part that gives me worry.”

In the week that followed the assassination attempt — which coincided with the Republican Party’s summer nominating convention — Trump and his allies sought to tamp down on some over-the-top rhetoric. Then President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and was soon replaced by Harris.

“They had an opportunity to really claim more high ground, and I think they were down that path for a little bit,” this person said. “The change to Harris is what really took them off that track and has produced, I would argue, two of the most undisciplined months of Donald Trump’s political career.”

Dave McCormick, the GOP Senate nominee in Pennsylvania, who had a front-row seat at the July rally, wrote a Wall Street Journal op-ed afterward calling for political rhetoric that is not “dehumanizing” on both sides of the aisle.

Responding to some of Trump’s recent rhetoric, including his comments about Harris’ mental state, McCormick told NBC News that “rhetoric on both sides is sometimes too heated.”

But he maintained that Harris has said “horrible things” about Trump. 

“We need to focus on a battle of ideas. That’s the kind of campaign I’m running, and I can only run my campaign,” he said.

Butler County is a GOP stronghold in western Pennsylvania, a mix of rural communities and suburbs just north of Pittsburgh. Trump carried the county by 38 percentage points in 2016, but his margin shrank to 32 points in 2020 — which led some local right-wing activists to demand audits of the vote there. In 2022, Gov. Josh Shapiro managed to limit his margin of defeat there to just 12 points in what was a landslide victory for Democrats across the state.

McCormick, who plans to attend Trump’s rally Saturday, said the July attack helped reinforce the “strength” of the Republican ticket — and the down-ballot candidates who were there that day.

“It was one of those iconic moments where you’re sitting next to when history is being made,” he said.

At this week’s vice presidential debate, Trump’s allies echoed McCormick’s comments about the impact of the attempted assassination.

“I think anybody, when you almost lose your life, you’re impacted,” said Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla. “Donald Trump is not immune from that, but I’m excited that he’s going back to Butler, because what it demonstrates to the American people is his resolve, that he’s not going to be intimidated.”

Security for the event will be front of mind. 

The lapses that led to the assassination attempt sparked a congressional investigation led by Rep. Mike Kelly, R-Pa., who represents the county. Secret Service protection around Trump has been beefed up since then, while law enforcement agencies, including in Butler County and at the state level, know they will be under scrutiny for their performance Saturday. 

Joseph Meyn, who witnessed Comperatore’s death, said he thinks about the assassination attempt “several times a day.” 

“It’s absolutely the right thing to come back,” he said. “Finish your rally, finish your speech. Connect with your voters. But it’s bad memories. It’s one of those things where you can go to that rally, but in the backdrop, there’s always going to be that event that happened. There’s a certain gravitas to the place now.”

Pam Olthof, who sells Trump merchandise at rallies, was in Butler on July 13 and set up just yards from what turned out to be the building accessed by the gunman. She came back to town to set up last Saturday and said the entire area surrounding the venue was already locked down — a difference from last time. 

“It’s impossible to get anywhere near the perimeter without running into security turning people away,” she said.

On Thursday, trucks brought in shipping containers to surround the area and block lines of sight from outside the rally. Leslie Osche, chair of the Butler County Board of Commissioners, said she expects “something along the lines of a fortress” to be erected around the rally site.

She added that local officials “have the benefit” of after-action reports and have “spent a lot of time trying to figure out what could we have done” better.

“They all came together,” Osche said of local emergency management services. “Our law enforcement and our emergency [management] took personally that we lost one of our own.”

Adam Reed, communications director for the Pennsylvania State Police, also said in a statement that the agency could not comment on specifics about its preparation for the rally, saying state law enforcement “is committed to providing the necessary resources to ensure a safe event when former President Trump returns to Butler.”

The Secret Service, Reed added, is leading the planning for the rally.

Donalds said, “I think Secret Service is going to do a great job.” 

On Sept. 15, Trump was targeted in a second apparent assassination attempt at his West Palm Beach, Florida, golf course when shots were fired in his vicinity. Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, is charged in connection with the episode.

Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., predicted Saturday’s rally would serve as a “very meaningful event” for Trump and the families who were affected by the would-be assassin in July, adding, “We need to address any type of security lapses.”

“I’m also deeply, deeply concerned about the multiple Iranian threats against President Trump that have been publicized, as well, and that’s something that has happened on the Biden administration’s watch, on Kamala Harris’ watch,” she said. “And that should never, never happen. It should never have gotten to this point. But it is a moment of strength, and the American people will rally around President Trump, as they did after the assassination attempt.”

The Trump ally who has worked in the state expressed hope that Trump — “in a Trumpian manner” — would open up about the shooting in an impactful and uplifting manner.

“There’s not that many opportunities left in this campaign, and I really don’t want to see it go to waste,” this person said. “I can’t pick another moment that we know about today that is going to change the trajectory of this. This is probably the closest thing to it.”

With Trump so far refusing to participate in another debate with Harris, this week’s faceoff between Vance and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate, most likely was the final major TV draw of the cycle.

“You just have limited opportunities to change the path that we’re on,” this person said. “I’m not saying we’re losing. I just think it’s a jump ball. And you could change that. It has to be really good, but you could. I hope they are able to effectively execute this. Because it is that last real opportunity that he has for sure.”

Allan Smith reported from New York City and Dasha Burns from Butler.