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Unstoppable bull run? Sensex may hit 1 lakh milestone…

4 July 2024
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When will Sensex hit the 1 lakh mark? BSE Sensex, India’s headline equity index, has the potential to reach the 1 lakh mark by December 2025, considering its historical compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.9% over the past 45 years, states an ET report.
With the April 1979 base value of 100, the Sensex has experienced a remarkable 800-fold increase! If the Sensex maintains its current growth rate of 15.9% per annum, it could hit the 1-lakh milestone by the end of next year, an ET report states.This projection does not account for the dividends declared by Sensex constituents, which investors may choose to reinvest in the market.
In the short term, the Sensex’s trajectory will likely be influenced by factors such as the Budget, the Fed’s rate cut trajectory, and the US Presidential elections. However, taking a long-term view, the growth trajectory appears to be intact, despite short-term fluctuations.

Sensex at 1 lakh?

Launched on January 1, 1986, with a base value of 100 as of April 3, 1979, the Sensex has only experienced 6 instances of negative returns since 1996. Over the last 5 years, the index has doubled in value from around the 40,000 mark.
Raamdeo Agrawal, a veteran of Dalal Street and co-founder of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, began his journey in the world of stocks in 1979, the same year the Sensex was constituted.
Also Read | Sensex at 1 lakh milestone this term? BSE Sensex jumped 93% during Nirmala Sitharaman’s first stint as FM!
His earlier calculations suggest that if the Sensex continues to double every 5 years, it could reach 1.5 lakh by 2029. In an ET column from April, he wrote, “India’s corporate sector profit has compounded at almost 17% over the last three decades. It is reasonable to expect 15% corporate profit growth going forward. If current P/E levels of 25x are maintained, this too, translates to the Sensex compounding of 15% i.e. double every five years. In other words, the Sensex level of 150,000 around the year 2029.”
Mark Mobius, a renowned emerging markets investor and India bull, concurs that if India grows at 7% and companies grow at 14-15%, the index will also rise at that pace over the next 10 years. In an earlier interview with ET Markets, he stated, “We are still on that upward trajectory. There will always be corrections, but we are still in that direction (towards 1 lakh). We will hit that. Maybe even before five years. India may be an exception in terms of moving faster.”

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Stock market today: BSE Sensex crosses 80,000 for the…

3 July 2024
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Stock market today: BSE Sensex and Nifty50, the Indian equity benchmark indices, scaled new lifetime highs in trade today with the 30-share index crossing the 80,000 mark for the first time. Nifty50, too hit a new high of 24,292. At 9:22 AM, BSE Sensex was trading at 79,935.12, up 494 points or 0.62%. Nifty50 was at 24,257.60, up 134 points or 0.75%.
On Tuesday, the benchmark Nifty experienced profit booking after reaching new heights above the 24,200 level. Motilal Oswal Financial Services has said, “We expect this ongoing momentum to continue with Nifty consolidating at a higher zone. While the FED Chairman Powell’s speech and the release of the meeting minutes will induce some volatility.”
According to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities, the Nifty remains strong as per the long-term chart, and one may expect the upside momentum to resume shortly after the consolidation movement. The immediate support is at 23,980, while the next upside resistance to watch is around 24,400.
Global markets showed mixed trends, with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures remaining little changed. The Hang Seng futures rose 0.5%, Japan’s Topix rose 0.2%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.3%, and Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.3%. In the forex market, the euro, Japanese yen, offshore yuan, and Australian dollar were all little changed against the US dollar.
Oil prices edged higher in early Asian trade on Wednesday, with Brent crude oil futures climbing 16 cents to $85.60 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rising 14 cents to $82.95 per barrel. This increase was driven by industry data showing a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles, boosting hopes of solid fuel demand during the summer driving season in the top oil-consuming nation.
India Cements and Indus Tower are the two stocks in the F&O ban today. Foreign portfolio investors turned net sellers at Rs 2,000 crore on Tuesday, while DIIs bought shares worth Rs 648 crore. The rupee depreciated 4 paise to settle at 83.48 against the US dollar on Tuesday, weighed down by a strong greenback in the overseas market and elevated global crude oil prices.
The net long of FIIs reduced from Rs 3.5 lakh crore on Monday to Rs 3.46 lakh crore on Tuesday.

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Stock market today: BSE Sensex surges 380 points to…

2 July 2024
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Stock market today: BSE Sensex and Nifty50, the Indian equity benchmark indices, soared to new lifetime highs in opening trade on Tuesday. While Sensex moved above 79,800 near the 80,000 mark, Nifty50 also crossed 24,200. At 9:22 AM, BSE Sensex was trading at 79,643.46, up 167 points or 0.21%. Nifty50 was at 24,190.55, up 49 points or 0.20%.
Domestic markets commenced the week positively, extending gains from the previous week despite a flat opening.
“We anticipate this trend will persist in the near term due to expectations of a rebound in discretionary spending. Investors are now focusing on upcoming US job data and the Fed Chair’s speech for further indication on interest rates,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.
Technical analysis suggests that the underlying trend of Nifty remains bullish, with the market aiming for the next upside target of 24,400 levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 23,980 levels, said Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities.
In global markets, S&P 500 futures were steady, while Hang Seng futures remained unchanged. The dollar gained support from rising U.S. yields, putting pressure on low-yielding currencies like the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen.
Oil prices held near two-month highs, supported by expectations of increased fuel demand during the summer travel season and potential U.S. interest rate cuts that could stimulate economic growth.
Foreign portfolio investors turned net sellers, offloading shares worth Rs 426 crore on Monday, while domestic institutional investors bought shares worth Rs 3,917 crore. The rupee depreciated by 10 paise to settle at 83.44 against the US dollar, influenced by rising crude oil prices in international markets.

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Stock market today: BSE Sensex moves above 78,100; Nifty50…

26 June 2024
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Stock market today: Indian equity benchmark indices, BSE Sensex and Nifty50, opened in green on Wednesday. While BSE Sensex moved above 78,100, Nifty50 was also near 23,750. At 9:18 AM, BSE Sensex was trading at 78,184.59, up 131 points or 0.17%. Nifty50 was at 23,736.70, up 15 points or 0.065%.
On Tuesday, equity markets continued their upward trajectory, reaching new highs as investors showed interest in banking and financial stocks.Both BSE Sensex and Nifty50 saw record closing highs.
“We expect the market to maintain its positive momentum as we draw nearer to the event. Globally, investors would track US Consumer confidence data,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal.
Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities noted that the short-term trend of Nifty remains positive, with the market showing early signs of an upside breakout in the near term. The next upside levels to watch are around 24,000, with immediate support placed at 23,550.
In the US, stocks were mixed, with the Nasdaq rallying 1.3% on the strength of tech megacaps, while the Dow slipped as retailers weighed and investors awaited crucial inflation data due out this week. The Dow was down 0.76%, the S&P up 0.39%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.26%.
Asian shares fell as US Federal Reserve officials said they wanted more evidence of cooling inflation before lowering interest rates.
Stocks in the F&O ban today include SAIL, PNB, GNFC, and Indus Tower. Foreign portfolio investors turned net buyers at Rs 1,175 crore on Tuesday, while DIIs sold shares worth Rs 149 crore. The net long of FIIs increased from Rs 1.01 lakh crore on Monday to Rs 1.4 lakh crore on Tuesday.

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Stock market today: Are BSE Sensex, Nifty50 closed for…

17 June 2024
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Stock market today: The stock markets in India, including the equity, derivative, and SLB segments of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), will remain closed on June 17, 2024, due to the observance of Eid-al-Adha (Bakri Eid). This closure is in accordance with the market holiday calendar provided by the BSE. Similarly, the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) will be closed for the morning session but will resume operations for the evening session.
In addition to Bakri Eid, the markets will also be closed on several other occasions throughout the year 2024, including Muharram (July 17), Independence Day (August 15), Mahatma Gandhi (October 2), Diwali (November 1), Gurunanak Jayanti (November 15), and Christmas (December 25).It is important to note that the exchanges reserve the right to modify any of these holidays, and in such cases, a separate circular will be issued in advance to inform market participants.
On Friday, the Indian benchmark equity indices, the 30-share BSE Sensex and the broader NSE Nifty, achieved record closing highs for the second consecutive session. The Sensex rose by 181 points or 0.24% to close at 76,993, while the Nifty gained 67 points or 0.29% to end the session at 23,465. According to an ET report, the rally was primarily driven by state-run companies and energy stocks, as investors remained optimistic about the new government’s continued focus on capital expenditure spending.
The Nifty’s market breadth favored the bulls, with 28 stocks trading in the green and 22 in the red. The top gainers for the day were Eicher Motors, Adani Ports, M&M, Shriram Finance, and Titan, while Tech Mahindra, TCS, Wipro, HCL Tech, and L&T were among the top losers.
Simultaneously, the small and mid-cap indexes, which are more focused on the domestic market, continued to outperform the benchmarks. These indexes jumped 1% and 0.75%, respectively, on Friday, marking record highs for the fourth straight session. Since the election results on June 4, the small and mid-cap indexes have added 15% and 12.36%, respectively, compared to the Nifty’s 7.22% increase over the same period.
State-run firms and lenders also performed well during the week, with gains of 4.94% and 2.5%, respectively. This strong performance can be attributed to investors’ expectations of policy continuity, as key ministers were retained in the new government’s cabinet.

Science & Environment

Stock market today: BSE Sensex up over 150 points…

12 June 2024
by admin

Analysts are of the view that the stock market seems to be in consolidation mode. (AI image)

Stock market today: Indian equity benchmark indices, BSE Sensex and Nifty50, opened in green on Wednesday. While BSE Sensex moved up above 76,600, Nifty50 was near 23,300. At 9:18 AM, BSE Sensex was trading at 76,609.51, up 153 points or 0.20%. Nifty50 was at 23,318.65, up 54 points or 0.23%.
The domestic markets closed flat on Tuesday, lacking fresh triggers following a strong recovery post the election results.Market analysts are of the view that the stock market seems to be in consolidation mode due to the absence of any new catalysts.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal, says, “Globally, investors are cautiously awaiting US CPI data and US Fed policy outcome which will be released tomorrow. The US Fed commentary could provide direction to the market. So far investors are baking in one rate cut towards the end of the year and any deviation from that could drive the market on either side.”
Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities says that the index is currently placed at the hurdle of 23400-23500 levels, which are weighing high for the market to sustain the new all-time highs, suggesting a possibility of a dip in the market. Immediate support is at 23050 levels, he said.
Oil prices ticked higher on Wednesday due to upbeat global demand views from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and OPEC. Brent crude futures rose 11 cents to $82.04 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 18 cents to settle at $78.10.
Foreign portfolio investors turned marginal net sellers at Rs 111 crore on Tuesday, while domestic institutional investors bought shares worth Rs 3,193 crore. The net short of FIIs reduced from Rs 1.43 lakh crore on Monday to Rs 1.25 lakh crore on Tuesday.

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Stock market today: BSE Sensex rises over 700 points…

6 June 2024
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Stock market today: BSE Sensex and Nifty50, the Indian equity benchmark indices, surged in trade on Thursday as the market reacted positively to the NDA forming the government in the coming days. While BSE Sensex moved above 75,000, Nifty50 was over 22,800. At 10:30 AM, BSE Sensex was trading at 75,106.91, up 725 points or 0.97%. Nifty50 was at 22,841.85, up 221 points or 0.98%.
The list of top gainers on the Sensex 30 at 10:30 AM included SBI, NTPC, L&T, Power Grid, HCL Tech, Tata Steel and Bajaj Finance.The top losers on Sensex 30 were HUL, Nestle India, Sun Pharma, Asian Paints and M&M.
The Indian stock market experienced a strong rebound on Wednesday as sentiments improved following the confirmation that the NDA will form the government for a third consecutive term.
“In the very near term, we expect the market to remain obsessed with government formation exercises, with a keen eye on key cabinet portfolios such as Finance, Defense, Roads, Energy, Commerce, and Railways. With election overhang done, we expect the focus to revert to fundamentals,” said Yashovardhan Khemka, Senior Manager, Research & Analytics at Abans Holdings.
The market is expected to remain range-bound in the short term, with the Nifty likely to trade between 21,300 and 23,000, according to an ET report. The India VIX, a measure of market fear, dropped significantly by 29.4% to settle at 26.75 levels.
Asian markets showed positive signs, with the Hang Seng futures rising 0.5%, Japan’s Topix increasing 0.5%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gaining 0.6%, and Euro Stoxx 50 futures climbing 1.5%. In the US, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record closing highs, primarily driven by technology stocks.
Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Thursday, supported by expectations of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September and a rebound from a selloff related to growing US inventories and an OPEC+ plan to increase supply.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net sellers, offloading shares worth Rs 5,656 crore on Wednesday, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) also sold shares worth Rs 4,555 crore. The rupee recovered 7 paise to close at 83.44 against the US dollar, supported by strong buying in domestic equities and lower crude oil prices in international markets.

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Why Raamdeo Agarwal believes Indian markets will double in…

5 June 2024
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Stock market outlook post Lok Sabha election results: Raamdeo Agarwal, the Chairman of Motilal Oswal, believes in the importance of focusing on the fundamentals rather than getting swayed by short-term market fluctuations in equity investing.
The recent market volatility, driven by election results and exit polls, should be considered as noise, he says in a column in ET.Instead, investors should focus on the fact that the BJP remains the single largest party, and the NDA has the mandate to form the third successive government, ensuring continuity in development reforms and PM Modi’s vision for India’s future, he says.
According to Agarwal, India’s economic fundamentals remain strong, with robust GDP growth, substantial foreign exchange reserves, low inflation, and the possibility of interest rate cuts by the RBI.
Additionally, good monsoons and positive outlooks from rating agencies contribute to the resilience of the Indian economy. These factors are expected to drive corporate earnings growth, a key driver of stock markets, he says.
Also Check | Stock Market Today Live Updates_{The increasing participation of retail investors in the stock market, evident from the growing number of demat accounts and rising monthly SIP flows, has helped the markets absorb significant FII selling in the recent past. FIIs may even use the current market correction as an opportunity to re-enter India, he adds.
Agarwal quotes Benjamin Graham, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
The current market reaction to the election results may lead to some short-term derating of India, but this will likely be offset by corporate earnings growth of around 15% over the next year, he believes.
Long-term investors should maintain their belief in India’s solid economic fundamentals and expect the market benchmarks to double in the next 5-6 years, he says.
Raamdeo Agarwal advises new investors to follow Warren Buffett’s wisdom: “It’s wise for investors to be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.”
The current market fear, driven by fluid politics, presents an opportunity for investors to believe in India’s strong economic foundation and invest with a long-term perspective, he says. “I advise you to believe in India’s solid economics and be somewhat greedy,” he concludes.}

Science & Environment

Stock market crash today: Investors lose Rs 30 lakh…

4 June 2024
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Stock market crash today: In a stunning turn of events, the Indian stock market experienced a massive meltdown on Tuesday as vote-counting trends indicated that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s alliance might fall short of the anticipated landslide victory.
The benchmark BSE Sensex plunged over 4,300 points, marking its worst performance in four years and erasing its gains for 2024.The broader NSE Nifty also suffered a significant drop of 1,379 points or 5.93%, closing at 21,884.
The market capitalization of all listed companies on the BSE took a severe hit, with Rs 29.9 lakh crore wiped off, bringing the total to Rs 396 lakh crore. At one point during the day, indices fell as much as 8.5%, reminiscent of the market turmoil witnessed during the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to an ET report.
Also Read | Adani Group stocks plummet as stock market crashes! M-cap falls by Rs 3 lakh crore
This sharp decline came just a day after indices had jumped over 3% following exit polls that projected a two-thirds majority for the BJP-led alliance in the lower house.
“The unexpected outcome of the general election sparked a wave of fear selling in the domestic market, reversing the recent substantial rally,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.
As of 3:45 pm, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was leading in nearly 293 seats, falling short of the magic number of 272 required for a simple majority in the 543-member lower house of parliament.
Also Read | RIL share price today: Reliance Industries’ stock crashes 10%; investors suffer Rs 1.67 lakh crore loss on Lok Sabha results uncertainty
Adani Group stocks bore the brunt of the market sell-off, closing 10-21% lower. Among the Sensex pack, NTPC, SBI, L&T, and Power Grid suffered losses ranging from 12-15%.
Almost all sectoral indices closed in deep red, with Nifty Bank falling 8%, Realty down 9.6%, PSU Bank plummeting 15%, Oil & Gas dropping 11.8%, and Metal declining 10.6%. Smallcap and midcap indices also closed 8.2% and 7.9% lower, respectively.

Science & Environment

Why is stock market open today, on Saturday May…

18 May 2024
by admin

Stock market today: The election fever continues to keep investors and traders on their toes, with exchanges holding a special trading session today, despite it being a weekend.
The equity cash and derivative markets will operate in two sessions. This marks the third time this year that the market has remained open on a weekend, which is typically a holiday.Similar special trading sessions were held on Saturdays in January and March. In previous years, trading was also conducted from the disaster recovery site in 2016 and 2017.
The special live trading session is being conducted in accordance with Sebi guidelines, which require testing the preparedness for handling unexpected disasters from the main trading centre in Mumbai, says an ET report. The session will be split into two segments: the first part will run from 9:15 am to 10 am for normal trading, while the second session will be conducted from the disaster recovery site from 11:30 am to 12:30 pm.
All securities, including those with derivative products, will have a maximum price band of 5%. Securities already in the 2% or lower price band will remain in their respective bands.
Despite the absence of clear momentum, positive global cues and rotational participation from index heavyweights have helped the markets climb higher on Friday. Analysts suggest maintaining a “buy on dips” strategy and focusing on stock selection. However, given the shortened trading hours, trading volumes are expected to be low.