Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, senior national political reporter Sahil Kapur breaks down how Kamala Harris is handling shifting border politics. Plus, “Meet the Press” moderator Kristen Welker previews next week’s vice presidential debate.

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Harris seeks to neutralize immigration vulnerability as the politics tilt right

By Sahil Kapur

Kamala Harris is aiming to neutralize a political vulnerability and rebut Donald Trump’s core campaign message today as she takes her tough-on-migration stance to the U.S.-Mexico border in Arizona.

Harris’ immediate goal is to signal to moderate voters that she will be an aggressive enforcer of the law and keep migration in check. After struggling on the issue, Democrats have finally found what they believe is a winning message: remind voters that Trump pressured Republicans to kill a bipartisan bill this past spring that would impose tougher border controls and make it harder to get asylum.

Trump has long held a clear advantage among voters on immigration, though NBC News polling shows that edge is narrowing. Asked in January which candidate would be better on the issue of securing the border and controlling immigration, voters favored Trump over Joe Biden by 35 points.

But in this month’s survey, Trump’s lead over Harris on that question was down to 21 points. The gender divide was still stark: Trump led Harris on the border question by 41 points among men, by 52 points among white men, and by 13 points among nonwhite men.

Harris has highlighted a different side of her background as she has tackled this issue: the tough prosecutor who took on international gangs and organized crime as the top law enforcement officer of California. Her message reflects a broader turn on immigration within the Democratic Party and foreshadows a transformed policy landscape in the coming years, where imposing tougher border controls will likely be the focal point regardless of which party wins the election.

“The priorities have to be getting the border under control. The numbers are very low right now, but you can’t guarantee that that will remain the case. You also can’t be assured that the courts won’t ultimately strike down the executive orders that the administration has taken,” Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., the party’s chief negotiator on a major border security package, told NBC News in an interview. “I think our ability to get other reforms into law is made easier by putting a priority on border security.”

Harris’ pitch completes a turnaround from 2019, when she took more left-leaning positions as a presidential candidate, including backing a call to reduce illegal border crossings to a civil — not criminal — violation and objecting to Obama-era deportations. At the time, Democrats were de-emphasizing enforcement in their messaging and putting a greater focus on expanding opportunities for prospective immigrants. 

But while Harris calls for bringing back the bipartisan border bill, its chief Republican negotiator said that’s easier said than done.

“No bill you can just pick up and just move to another year, because it just doesn’t work that way,” Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., said in an interview. “I think she knows that. It’s a good talking point, but mechanically, that’s not actually true.”

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Sizing up the upcoming Vance-Walz debate

By Kristen Welker

Vice presidential debates typically don’t matter — until they actually do. 

Think of Joe Biden’s strong performance against Paul Ryan after Barack Obama struggled in his first 2012 debate. Or Lloyd Bentsen’s famous “You’re no Jack Kennedy” zinger to Dan Quayle in 1988. Or James Stockdale’s famous/infamous “Why am I here?” line in 1992.

That’s maybe the best way to think about Tuesday’s debate between Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Walz: It probably won’t affect the trajectory of the race, but it could help the GOP ticket after Donald Trump’s rough debate this month. If Walz has a strong showing, it could potentially bolster the Harris campaign’s momentum and deliver a memorable moment. 

Let’s start with the overall stakes: The debate comes as Kamala Harris has opened up a narrow lead (both nationally and in key battlegrounds), though well within the margin of error. It also comes after snap polls and many observers concluded Harris bested Trump in their first — and perhaps only — debate.

So this could be the final debate involving members of 2024 presidential ticket.

Then there are the different media strategies heading into the debate: Vance has been almost everywhere, doing interviews with various news organizations, including on “Meet the Press.” That’s compared with Walz’s reluctance so far to engage with the national news media. That relative silence could raise the debate stakes for him.

And then there’s the polling on both men. In our latest national NBC News poll, 40% of voters said they had a positive view of Walz, versus 33% with a negative view (+7). By contrast, Vance’s numbers are the worst our poll has ever measured for a vice presidential nominee: 32% positive, 45% negative (-13).

Does the debate change those views? Or only harden them? That’s just some of what I will be watching for on Tuesday night.

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That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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