Welcome to the MLB draft’s new reality, in which…
A few minutes later, a team that nearly made the playoffs last year — the Cincinnati Reds — chose Wake Forest right-hander Chase Burns with the second selection. Not until the third pick, when the Colorado Rockies took Georgia outfielder Charlie Condon, did a team that spent last year and has spent this year firmly out of contention make a selection.
This is the new reality of baseball’s draft, which was altered via the collective bargaining agreement two years ago to prevent teams that lose year after year from celebrating mediocrity with hordes of high picks. The previous CBA facilitated the lengthy rebuilds of the Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles, among others. As those teams struggled to emerge from irrelevance, they were boosted by the opportunity to select whomever they believed was the best amateur player each summer.
Under the old agreement, for example, the Washington Nationals would have had the first pick this year after making Dylan Crews the second choice last summer. Instead, as a team that plays in a market big enough that it must share revenue with smaller-market teams, the Nationals are excluded from receiving a selection in the draft lottery in back-to-back years. The highest they could choose is 10th, so that is where they landed Wake Forest’s Seaver King.
The system hasn’t entirely upended old draft norms. The Oakland Athletics and Chicago White Sox — neither of whom has threatened their fans with October baseball in a few years — chose fourth and fifth. The A’s added Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz, a patient hitter who could move quickly through their system. The White Sox picked left-hander Hagen Smith of Arkansas, getting one of the best pitchers available in the draft after Burns.
The sting of slipping out of the lottery was relatively low this year because this draft class was not headlined by a clear No. 1 pick or a face-of-the-franchise talent. In fact, it was not clear whom the Guardians would take until the moment they chose. When the Nationals picked first in 2009 and 2010, by comparison, everyone had known for months that whoever picked first would select Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. And even in years when there is no agreed-upon future superstar, the pick typically is clear for days (or at least hours) ahead of time.
But Bazzana was not as obvious, in large part because none of the top-rated players seemed to be guarantees to make an impact immediately. Last year’s first pick, Paul Skenes, will start the All-Star Game for the National League on Tuesday night in nearby Arlington, Tex., and his emergence has changed the future of the Pittsburgh Pirates dramatically. Bazzana is not expected to change a franchise’s fortunes as much as smoothly slide into them.
Bazzana might move quickly, too, in large part because he fits the Guardians’ mold as a high-average hitter who walked more than he struck out during three seasons at Oregon State. He is a fiery left-handed hitter who became the first Australia-born player selected first overall as well as the first second baseman picked first; he’s a savvy offensive talent known for his ability to adapt.
In Burns, the Reds get someone who fits their needs as a lower-budget contender, too: Evaluators identified Burns as one of the two best college pitchers available. At a time when pitching is more expensive than ever, the Reds picked the pitcher who is closest to major league ready.
Some of the more elite talent ended up sliding to the back end of the lottery anyway. Florida two-way star Jac Caglianone was selected sixth by the Kansas City Royals despite having generational power, in large part because of his tendency to swing at pitches outside of the strike zone. The St. Louis Cardinals, perennial winners who rarely find themselves with a chance to draft so high, took West Virginia shortstop JJ Wetherholt at No. 7. He had been in the conversation at first overall.
By the time the Los Angeles Angels selected infielder Christian Moore out of Tennessee with the eighth pick, MLB had set a record for college players selected to start the draft. Whether the new format influenced the picks or the lack of obvious superstars inspired teams to bet on players with longer track records against top competition is unclear.
One choice later, the Pirates made shortstop Konnor Griffin the first high school player selected. Griffin, like the college players, also presented an opportunity to limit risk with a first-round choice: While the standout from Mississippi is considered to have elite potential at the plate, he also can pitch, meaning there is another development path if he does not make strides offensively.
But the story of the evening was the prevalence of college players taken early in a draft that featured contenders picking early. Whether because of the desire to move players more quickly or because of a general lack of confidence in this high school draft class, just two high-schoolers were selected in the first 15 picks. Two high school players were selected in the top five of last year’s draft, which was considered top-heavy with college talent.
Exactly how this format will change the way teams approach the draft probably will not be clear for some time. But on Sunday, the preference for polished players who could move through the minors quickly was obvious — suggesting that something different was in the draft water this year, though only time will tell exactly what that difference is.